Above-average temperatures were observed across the Southeast, southern/central Plains, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic, with below-average temperatures recorded in the Pacific Northwest, Minnesota/Wisconsin and localized areas in southern California and Arizona. So that is right in line with expectations for this year, which was the second consecutive winter with La Niña conditions in the Pacific. This north/south split on temperatures is similar to the pattern that is expected during a La Niña-influenced winter. Meanwhile temperatures were favored to be below-average across the Pacific Northwest and northern Plains. The Winter Outlook favored warmer-than-average temperatures for the eastern, southern, and central United States. Winter 2021-2022 temperature outlook verification: How’d all that red do? Onto the Winter Outlook 2021-2022 verification! (3) Due to the high amount of uncertainty, you should never expect a seasonal outlook forecast to have probabilities close to 100% in any of the individual categories (2). If all chances are the same (called an equal chance), the location is colored in white (1).
The classic Winter Outlook map that you are accustomed to is showing only the category that has the highest chance of the three.
#PACIFIC NORTHWEST WINTER FORECAST 2021 2022 VERIFICATION#
If you’d like a refresher, there are seven different verification posts at the ENSO Blog that I’ve written that I highly recommend you peruse.Ī reminder of the basics: The seasonal outlooks are forecasts for the probability that seasonal average temperature and total precipitation will fall in one of three categories-above average, below average, or near average. Instead, we slam some cold, hard statistical math facts on the proverbial table for our readers. That leaves us vulnerable to the whims of our human biases. We’re not the types to simply give you a thumbs up or thumbs down on how well the outlook performed. I’m talking about our annual look back at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s Winter Outlook to see how well it did. No, I’m not talking about March Madness, or St. Things look particularly bad for the drought in the Southwest, where drought conditions are forecast to worsen over the next few months.Some would call it the most famous annual tradition. This signals a wetter winter for parts of the Midwest and the Tennessee Valley, but drier conditions across the southern U.S. Gottschalck said this year’s La Niña looks like it will be a moderate (or upper-end moderate) La Niña pattern. Drier-than-average conditions are favored in south-central Alaska, southern California, the Southwest, and the Southeast. (NOAA based on NWS CPC data) La Niña and Droughtįor the second winter in a row, La Niña conditions are forecast to affect the country’s winter weather, said Gottschalck. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in parts of the North, primarily in the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and western Alaska. This precipitation forecast has a lot do with La Niña, which has already started to settle in. The rest of the country should expect an average amount of rain or snow. The southern half of the country is looking at drier conditions, especially the Southwest, Florida and southern Georgia.
The Northern Rockies, parts of New York, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia and Missouri may also see more precipitation.
The Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes region are most likely to see a wetter-than-average winter this year. Winter Outlook 2021-2022 map for temperature shows warmer-than-average conditions across the South and most of the eastern U.S., while below average temperatures are favored for southeast Alaska and the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Northern Plains. (NOAA, using NWS CPC data) Precipitation (rain and snow)
0 kommentar(er)
